The August 2023 Hype Report Card

The sub spent the back half of August arguing about the rookie. “JSN is going to be a problem in the NFL” (91 upvotes) landed on August 20, one day after “JSN is a fade at his current price” (40 upvotes), while a third thread asked why he ranked so far ahead of Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers. Both sides showed up; the optimists were louder.

Both takes looked right at different times. His price sagged through a quiet rookie year and bottomed 27% below the hype-window price in September 2024 — the fade post's best moment. Then the breakout came, and by late 2025 he had led the NFL in receiving yards and pinned his value to the top of the WR board. The August 2023 believers were rewarded, just two years later than they expected.

Miami's beat corps reported Achane had bulked up to 197 pounds, and the thread asking whether that changed anyone's mind pulled 138 upvotes. A preseason all-touches breakdown followed at 96. Then August did August things: “RB De'Von Achane carted to the locker room” hit 168 upvotes on the 19th and the price actually dipped into September.

The cart was a shoulder scare, and five weeks after the hype window you could buy him 15% cheaper. Anyone who did caught one of the great value explosions in recent dynasty history — a 57% single-month rip in October 2023 behind absurd yards-per-carry efficiency, and he has held a top-tier RB price ever since. Up 85% from the hype window three years later, at a position where prices usually rot.

“LaPorta has been taking first-team reps since Day 1 and doesn't look out of place at all” earned 183 upvotes on August 4. Rookie tight ends are supposed to be automatic fades, so the sub treating a Day 2 rookie TE as an every-down starter was itself a signal.

The camp reports were simply accurate. LaPorta delivered one of the best rookie tight end seasons ever, his price nearly doubled by the following summer, and even after the position-wide cooldown he sits 37% above the hype-window price. The footnote: his value dipped 7% the week after the post — even the truest hype gave you a cheaper entry.

This one is graded in reverse: the sub wasn't buying, it was holding a funeral. “Trey Lance owners support group” pulled 224 upvotes on August 13 — one of the ten biggest posts of the month — flanked by “Is it time to give up on Trey Lance?” and, five days later, “I just sold Lance and I feel relieved.”

Twelve days after the support group convened, San Francisco traded Lance to Dallas for a fourth-round pick and his dynasty price collapsed 42% in two weeks. It has never recovered. The manager who posted about selling in relief on August 18 executed one of the best-timed exits in the whole dataset. Capitulation is a signal too — sometimes the crowd sells the bottom, and sometimes the crowd calls it.

The single most upvoted post on r/DynastyFF in August 2023 was “🚨🚨 Rashid Shaheed has a Sleeper picture 🚨🚨” — 356 upvotes for the observation that the app had granted a former undrafted deep threat an official headshot. It was a meme. It was also, technically, a buy thesis.

Six weeks later Shaheed's price had jumped 38% on early-season deep balls, and it has oscillated around that higher plateau ever since — up 41% from the hype window overall. The meme beat most of the serious analysis in this report card. What it never became was a league-winner: three years of spikes and retreats between roughly 2,400 and 3,600, the profile of a tradeable flier rather than a cornerstone.

“It's official: The Colts have named rookie QB Anthony Richardson their Week 1 starter” (220 upvotes, August 15) capped a month of AR content — every preseason pass attempt charted, an over/under thread on his rushing volume. In superflex the sub priced him like a top-five dynasty QB before he had thrown a regular-season pass.

Here's the uncomfortable part: the hype held. His price climbed for thirteen straight months and peaked 26% above the hype window in September 2024. Then came the benching, and the floor gave out — a 75% collapse from peak to today. Rushing-QB hype has the longest shelf life of any hype in dynasty, which makes it the easiest to ride and the hardest to exit. Everyone had a year to sell at a profit. Most didn't.

“Mark My Words: Sam Howell Will be a Fantasy Star” went up on August 6 (59 upvotes), and twelve days later the Commanders made it look prophetic by naming him the starting quarterback (90 upvotes). A fifth-round pick with the job in a superflex format — the sub was intrigued.

For fourteen weeks the take worked: Howell led the league in pass attempts and his price ran up 60% by Thanksgiving. Then the sacks and the benching arrived, and the price gave back everything and kept falling — down 69% from the hype window today. The lesson isn't that the post was wrong; it's that hype-QB gains are rented, not owned. There was a real, month-long window to sell at +60%, and it never came back.

“Kendre Miller standing out at training camp” hit 182 upvotes on August 2, with Alvin Kamara's suspension opening a September lane for the rookie. A preseason touches thread followed, then the knee sprain threads — the full August lifecycle in one player, inside three weeks.

His superflex value on August 7, 2023 — the Monday after the camp-standout post — turned out to be the highest it would ever be again. He never took the backfield, the injuries kept coming, and the price bled more than half its value. When a player's all-time peak coincides with a camp report, the camp report was the product being sold.

“Skyy Moore has been with 1s every rep at training camp when KC has had 2 WRs” (162 upvotes, August 7), followed three days later by “Skyy Moore seeing every rep with first-team in 2-WR sets” (79). A second-year receiver, in the Chiefs offense, running with the starters — it was the cleanest opportunity story of the month, and his price climbed 18% across camp to prove it.

August 21, 2023 was Skyy Moore's all-time value peak. The first-team camp reps never converted into regular-season targets, and the price fell almost monotonically for two years — down 73% from the hype window. This is the purest specimen in the dataset: hype built entirely on practice-field usage, worth nothing the moment real games started.

Andy Reid said Ross had “done a nice job” (49 upvotes), the sub declared “the train rolls on” when he returned from a leg scare (90), and one skeptic asked the question of the month: “Is Justyn Ross relevant for the Chiefs or is this just camp hype?” (36 upvotes — the fewest of the three).

The chart answers the skeptic. Ross's value spiked 47% in the two weeks around those posts — from 1,553 in late July to 2,282 on August 7 — the single most concentrated camp-hype pump in the dataset. He never caught on, the price decayed to nothing, and by early 2026 he dropped off KTC's rated board entirely. The least-upvoted take was the correct one.